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周四,由于投资者评估显示劳动力市场疲软以及消费者价格小幅上涨的数据,美元走软,这表明美联储可能会继续降息。
根据美国劳工部的数据,9月份消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨了0.2%。然而,截至9月份,CPI同比上涨2.4%,这是自2021年2月以来的最小年度涨幅。在周四接受《华尔街日报》采访时,亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克表示,他对在即将到来的美联储会议上跳过降息表示“完全舒适”。

(美国CPI同比数据,来源:Forex Factory)
劳工部的进一步数据显示,上周申请失业救济人数激增,部分原因是飓风赫琳的影响以及波音公司的休假。这一失业救济申请的激增导致债券收益率下降,因为它提醒了市场美联储对劳动力市场的担忧。

(美国失业救济申请数据,来源:Forex Factory)
此外,根据CME集团的FedWatch工具,交易员目前预测美联储在11月7日的政策会议上有85%的可能性将利率下调25个基点,15%的可能性保持不变。
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